Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 99268.470822 104612.639850 109951.060453 115680.341000 121651.415076 127687.429690 134246.645498
2025-08-31 89713.459414 97837.416240 106175.276407 115361.584344 125187.695029 135372.164029 146715.056034
2025-09-07 84116.588785 94239.882399 104852.109116 116784.314942 129804.372547 143557.719736 159161.254611
2025-09-14 79553.294490 91172.924936 103571.857283 117750.500106 133477.910709 150350.786326 169782.905930
2025-09-21 75285.516141 88034.252986 101852.767984 117890.413990 135935.877763 155556.952077 178447.269150
2025-09-28 71669.653143 85345.801563 100380.497701 118062.735516 138213.559027 160385.563354 186547.234264
2025-10-05 69554.443589 84187.177537 100477.473501 119863.212376 142204.760542 167044.683786 196646.398968
2025-10-12 67512.822380 82971.306370 100384.434344 121333.977792 145729.425201 173113.991461 206045.732305
2025-10-19 65289.905472 81417.185019 99788.411626 122120.857297 148382.528060 178128.637923 214205.630207
2025-10-26 62925.900986 79581.095541 98759.541743 122305.974559 150255.120620 182184.678180 221222.720531
2025-11-02 60925.442869 78086.904566 98051.207020 122792.989193 152419.604737 186537.376758 228564.681397
2025-11-09 58834.987011 76396.182267 97029.548259 122833.457846 153994.426227 190156.212787 235022.551213
2025-11-16 57524.447220 75627.381478 97099.168644 124183.171541 157152.040283 195689.456227 243826.183516
2025-11-23 55550.053078 73968.604431 96027.237298 124096.362193 158542.740861 199103.222014 250112.568490
2025-11-30 54533.419771 73462.021532 96331.567764 125664.064129 161924.945727 204903.768254 259284.502149
2025-12-07 53325.662879 72665.292556 96235.278318 126703.022851 164638.539658 209892.618979 267493.433139
2025-12-14 51765.321821 71364.261919 95460.710926 126854.564391 166225.481875 213495.115291 274018.884020
2025-12-21 50306.658984 70144.618588 94744.039598 127038.204531 167820.882863 217090.130217 280534.420082
2025-12-28 49718.517996 70029.523084 95407.605766 128949.835214 171569.977497 223341.429542 290342.599018
2026-01-04 49008.242784 69725.969777 95807.842883 130511.078366 174874.393242 229053.633295 299516.006723
2026-01-11 48016.909540 69017.608063 95658.663209 131346.269772 177247.911299 233610.038273 307273.913732
2026-01-18 46798.677753 67969.800859 95036.353292 131542.744137 178788.249129 237117.314586 313730.579584
2026-01-25 45770.330567 67146.195082 94679.404033 132059.617782 180722.481565 241114.425486 320812.247644